Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.330130 2.467854 2.617672 2.794398 2.999436 3.232829 3.523221
2025-08-03 2.193802 2.364619 2.558154 2.797649 3.092203 3.451903 3.941130
2025-08-10 2.060142 2.241071 2.450562 2.716776 3.055459 3.487273 4.110164
2025-08-17 1.986580 2.177855 2.403460 2.696878 3.081736 3.592703 4.374192
2025-08-24 1.928957 2.127497 2.365107 2.679956 3.103464 3.685601 4.624324
2025-08-31 1.882342 2.086350 2.333448 2.666023 3.123134 3.771024 4.868368
2025-09-07 1.857255 2.069125 2.328986 2.684598 3.184978 3.919003 5.236426
2025-09-14 1.790470 1.996691 2.250238 2.598337 3.090424 3.817312 5.137806
2025-09-21 1.761332 1.970039 2.228529 2.586929 3.100843 3.876517 5.340953
2025-09-28 1.720870 1.927436 2.184148 2.541731 3.057941 3.845199 5.360041
2025-10-05 1.723051 1.938488 2.209203 2.592041 3.157224 4.050027 5.887433
2025-10-12 1.734437 1.961058 2.249404 2.664318 3.293169 4.330021 6.660410
2025-10-19 1.716396 1.945823 2.239698 2.666571 3.323026 4.432193 7.062937
2025-10-26 1.700650 1.932755 2.231928 2.670383 3.354102 4.537346 7.503940
2025-11-02 1.658094 1.883451 2.173560 2.597966 3.257905 4.394394 7.210818
2025-11-09 1.637709 1.862737 2.153386 2.580605 3.249904 4.417630 7.402901
2025-11-16 1.619499 1.844340 2.135674 2.565862 3.244722 4.444383 7.609360
2025-11-23 1.603279 1.828105 2.120326 2.553766 3.242676 4.475769 7.836167
2025-11-30 1.598626 1.826834 2.125130 2.571211 3.289628 4.606699 8.431380
2025-12-07 1.560634 1.780655 2.067112 2.493036 3.172650 4.397688 7.797671
2025-12-14 1.547752 1.767674 2.054713 2.483039 3.170460 4.422691 7.996686
2025-12-21 1.524433 1.740463 2.022183 2.442054 3.114565 4.335202 7.785347
2025-12-28 1.532519 1.755059 2.047548 2.488476 3.207976 4.559573 8.764378